Startup Market Sizing

What’s your TAM, SAM, SOM and LAM – What’s your Launch Addressable Market?

Is this market big enough to build a company around?

The effort of market sizing helps establish the potential market share your product could attain within the total market. Market sizing can be a difficult challenge for startup founders. They are looking to prove that they are going after a Multi-Billion dollar market for their products so this can lead to a bit of delusion on the market scoping exercise.

My goal here is to help you to avoid the 1% of China market – you know the person that has an awesome product and if they just sell it to 1% of the China consumer market they will make Billions! Of course the other example is that you just need one customer at $1B!

To help understand market sizing, let’s use a software example (vs. a restaurant of automotive). Let’s say you want to build a better Customer Relationship Management (CRM) product to compete with Salesforce.com. OK, I’m a Salesforce fan, but I’m happy to start with you on your hypothesis, Salesforce isn’t for every company.

Total Addressable (Available) Market – or TAM – is the entirety of the market for your product. Everyone worldwide that could buy your product.

So in the competitive scenario above, your Total Market would be any person that interacts with customers or potential customers – across all industries, geographies and sales models.Market-sizing-TAM-SAM-SOM

Service (Serviceable) Addressable Market – or SAM – is the market you can acquire with your product. An example of a limitation would be if your product is only in English, you would only be able to target a subset of the TAM that would be willing to buy your product in English. The next filter might be the vertical market that  you are targeting, e.g. technology companies with sales teams vs. let’s say, drug companies with sales teams.

In the CRM market, your SAM would now be the people in sales and customer service worldwide who use English as their primary language for business.

Service Obtainable Market – or SOM – is the portion of the market that you can garner or get to use your product. What is the realistic market share that your company can garner at six months, 1, 2 and 3 years after launch.

This is where the analysis gets harder to calculate. It now has to do with the features you have at launch and the needs of your customers.

You can’t sell to everyone, who is the most realistic target customer?

In the example you’ve decided to target your CRM product at the technology sales market, you’ll need to narrow your market again:

  • Small sales teams
  • Medium sales teams
  • Large sales teams
  • Complex selling cycles
  • Educational sales cycles
  • Transactional sales cycles

The new concept I want to propose is Launch Addressable Market – or LAM. Today’s startup market is very familiar with the concept of Minimum Viable Product (MVP) and Lean Startup methodology talks about “getting out of the building” to validate you idea with real customers (technically prospects because they haven’t purchased anything yet). The concept of the LAM is where your market sizing exercise meets your MVP and product roadmap.

Get out of the building and go prove your launch customers enthusiastically wants your product. If that LAM customer falls into the “Meh” category, they are underwhelmed by your offering, you’re never going to get to your SAM market.

Remember there is a difference between your launch product/market and your scale product/market. If you don’t find customers for your launch, you’ll never get to scale!

You’ll need to convince investors that the market is both big and you can find the path to get to that market.

Step by Step Guide to MVP Part 3 – Data Driven Decisions

Part 3 – Making your first data driven decision

Given what you have discovered so far in your experiment, what’s your next step in investing in your MVP and this idea? Because it’s easy to spend reach cash on advertising it’s important to have a thesis on why you’re investing in this idea.

What I’ve outlined in the following section are tasks that you can continue to develop and learn about what your potential customers are searching for on the web and how you can stand in the path of their search to monetize your startup idea.

  1. SEOYoast Setup
    1. Google Search Console Setup, also known as Webmaster Central  
      1. Authentication – this process is dependent on your Domain Name Provider
      2. Use this tool to test your content for Readability and SEO. It will score your post and give you tips of what you should improve.
  2. Google adwords initial review – Hit Pause
    1. What did you think?
    2. What did you learn?What are you going to do about it?
  3. Quality Score – my average quality score on starting keywords was a 2/10 or 3/10. After doing the items listed below, I was able to get them to a 5 or 7.
    1. Start at Google for where to start – here. This includes a live chat channel, by the way. Quality is based on three factors:
      1. Data Relevance – how does the ad map to the website for content?  
      2. Landing Page Experience – this is more about the speed of the landing page vs. the content of the landing page
    2. Performance Testing – I used the free 14 day trial of Pingdom to test speed.

venturereadymodels_ads_-_http___www_venturereadymodels_com_building-financial-models

  1. Click through rate – this will have to change over time – but as it improves, your costs for those keywords are likely to go down.
    1. Matching
      1. Broad Match
      2. Exact Match
      3. Phrase Match – I shifted all of my adwords to Phrase Match which caused the quality score to start over
    2. Duplicate keywords
      1. You don’t need to list a plural “s,” e.g. “model” vs. “models” will show as a duplicate key word
  2. Outcome: I need to work on Landing Page Experience more – improve the speed and on page experience.
    1. For speed, I’m working through these 19 things.
    2. For experience, I’m using A/B testing tools and looking for plugins.
  1. Restart the broader keyword search and try the campaign again. Remember, testing keyword spend is always good for Google. So unless you want to feel like you went to Las Vegas and walked away with nothing, you should plan on micromanaging the process for now.
    1. Bounce Rates – here’s what you need to know
      1. Startup with Search only and avoid Display ads. For me, at least, the display ads only created a huge bounce rate
  2. At this point, you could either buy traffic at reasonable economics or not. Time for another decision – do you keep pushing ahead with this idea?
    1. Google will calculate your Average CPM or Cost per Thousand – (M represents the Roman Numeral for 1,000. I know, couldn’t they have referenced something from a digital decade?)
      1. This CPM rate will help you understand other advertising alternatives like Facebook ads or Display Ads for blogscampaign_management_-_google_adwords
    2. Have more cash to spend on Google? You can spend it there.
      1. Ad Groups – what did you learn about categories of adwords that aren’t directly tied to your core campaign? In this specific example, I learned there were two different groups that I need to follow up on at a later time:campaign_management_-_google_adwords
        1. Cap Tables
        2. Valuations
        3. You can use the “Get keyword ideas” tool to understand the traffic and potential costs.
  3. Take some time to build out SEO traffic through building content. This is going to take time, so block out an hour, three mornings a week to write unique content.
    1. Write more content and get those pages indexed – by the way, you will always be writing more content
      1. If you are unsure of the content as main website or Page content use Posts (blog posts) to test the content.
      2. Use your keywords in the Titles (H1s) and top paragraph, but write it to be read by a person not a machine
  4. AppSumo is installed. Start using these tools to test building your email list. More on this later, there are a lot of features here.

Results and Lessons Learned – Part 1 MVP Test

With each Part of the five parts in this series of Building and Testing your Minimum Viable Product (MVP), I will add a Results and Lessons Learned. I learned from a great friend, these are “Retrospectives” vs. “Post Mortems” because no one died!

Results

  1. Day one results – YES! Made a sale of the “Financial Model Template – Subscription Model” for $99 to someone who wasn’t on my existing list. That’s a win.
  2. I posted my first Blog Post – Step by Step Guide to Building a Minimum Viable Product MVP Test
    1. I should have listed that it was Part 1 of a 5 Part Series – foreshadowing is good.  
    2. I posted the post on a Sunday – bad move. I should have scheduled it to be posted on a Tuesday, late AM, a time when people may actually read it vs. a weekend.
  3. It took more time than I planned setting up MailChimp Automation and integrating with SumoMe. MailChimp automation, the ability to send five scheduled emails in a row required me to move from “Forever Free” to pay as you go at $0.03 per email. Support from SumoMe was great. Thanks @noahkagan and @SumoMe team.

  Tips 

  1. Tips for setting up and managing WordPress (hosted)
      1. When you go to Customize Your Site on theDashboard there are two important dashboard__venture_ready_models_-_wordpresssettings.
      2. Set Front Page as Static – that means your homepage will stay the same vs. changing every time you post a blog post.
      3. I wrote and posted my second post, this time customize__venture_ready_model___downloadable_excel_template_for_startupsusing the scheduling feature to launch Tuesday late AM!
  2. But I had to fix a setting on the “Customizing” (see image at right). I forgot to set that the lower text box wasn’t selected to “Blog” so though the first two blogs posts were live, but they were difficult to find because they weren’t on the Blog page … oops.
  3. Tips for WP setup
    1. I hadn’t yet set up automatic social sharing until I worked out the bugs – e.g. I wanted to get the 140 character Tweet right and have the right default image to share on Facebook. Determine your order of sharing and test it before you automate.
    2. There is a quirk in setting up nested numbers – the format I prefer to use. If you input an image in WordPress, it can cause numbering to start over. What I learned is that if you input the images before the text you don’t have the problem. The other option is to go into the HTML Text editor… 
    3. Categories and Tags – make sure you add these before you post. The default Category will be Uncategorized. After you’ve made 100 posts you’ll want your reader to be able to find your themes… and it won’t hurt your SEO either.
  4. Finally, have an editor! I’m lucky for a lot of reasons on this one. My editor is my wife, Kathryn Parker, of 29 years (@StartupSpouse5). Someone should give your post fresh eyes.

 

Step by Step Guide to MVP Part 2 – Adwords Test

Part 2 – Keyword Brainstorming

Is anyone looking for the product or service you want to sell? Using Adwords and spending $100 in the next five days will save you months of time working on an idea that has no demand, or no one wants to buy.

  1. Now it’s time for a little keyword brainstorming – this is going to take more than a football game and you will come back to this over and over again as you test your hypothesis.

Go to Tips for Building Keywords on Google Adwords. Here’s a video to help give you some context and get the 101 tutorial on Keyword Planner. The goal of this section is to determine if anyone is actually searching for what you are trying to sell (product or service) and how competitive it will be for you to land that traffic on your website.

    1. You’ll need a Google account
    2. Create a Google Spreadsheet to take notes
      1. Tab 1 – Keyword and phrase listing
      2. Tab 2 – competitor URLs
      3. In Keyword Planner – enter the keyword or phrase you believe will be most searched for in Google.
        1. Type in the competitor URLs that you believe people will use to find your site.
      4. Ad Group Ideas – this will show you similar campaigns and advertisements
      5. Use your primary language and location – the broader the search the better for the early stage test
      6. Update both the spreadsheet and keyword tool, as you move from resource to resource you’ll want to keep track – e.g. if you decide to test on Bing.com or other search engines
    3. Are there a lot of keywords or key phrases that can help drive traffic to your site
      1. How competitive are they?
      2. How expensive are they?
    4. Move to “Review Plan” tab – this will give you an estimate of what you will have to pay to drive traffic to your site and what your daily average spend would be for those keywordskeyword_planner_-_google_adwords
      1. Some of the key metrics Google will show you at this point are:
        1. Max CPC or Cost per Click – that’s the high amount that any competitor is spending on the keyword
        2. Clicks – for that price, what Google estimates you will get for click volume
        3. Impressions – how many times your ad will likely be seen
        4. Cost
        5. Click Thru Rate (CTR)
        6. Average Cost per Click (CPC)
        7. Average Position – where you will be on the page listing
    5. You can also setup Google Analytics at this point – you’re in the same login
      1. You will need to add Google Analytics (video) to your site, the easiest way to do so is to add YoastSEO tool
      2. Search Console
        1. Settings – Authenticate with Google
      3. We’ll come back to Google Analytics later – after you have some traffic to analyze.
    6. There are a number of free and paid additional tools you can use to go deeper into keywords and competitive analysis
      1. Go to the Topic Explorer tool at SEOMonitor to type in your key topic. It will create a list of the top traffic site and keywords to use on your site. Products like this are similarly to Keyword Tool but will provide you with thematic data and it has a better UI.
      2. SEOMoz is a time based trial tool, then you’ll need to upgrade to paid. So I’d get started learning SEO with the tools above before you launch into that tool.

2. Summarize your keyword learnings in the Google Sheet. Take a break… Time to ask yourself a critical question? Is anyone looking for the Product or Service that you are thinking of selling? 

a) What is the competition for keywords?

b)Are there any competitors that are selling this product or is it free?

Step by Step Guide to Building a Minimum Viable Product (MVP) Test

Part 1 of 5 Part Series on testing your MVP

I was planning on giving a “Financial Model for Founders” talk at Seattle Startup Week (#SSW2016) in November. As I worked on the presentation, the final version is here on Slideshare, I realized that  screenshot_11_26_16__8_29_ammaking this less conceptual and abstract the better so I wanted to use an very tangible example. What’s I’ve outlined below in Part 1 is are the Lean Startup Steps you can follow to test your hypothesis.

How do you define Viable? Well, that depends on you as a founder. You may want to create a massive unicorn business at one end of the spectrum or some passive income at the other end. The definition is that your business is “capable of working successfully; feasible”.

define_viable_lean_startup_-_google_search

This is the actual case study that I’m using to launch VentureReadyModels.com, a site that I have built to provides resources for startups, it starts by outlining the business models options for tech and internet companies. Though the principals for marketing and sales apply to regular business as well, just start with the Commerce model. Finally I provided the template versions of the Excel Financial Models that map s to the specific business models.

When I do startup events, I often get questions about how to test early startup MVP before investing any real money (let’s say $10k) into the startup and definitely before writing a single line of code. This is the definition of “Lean”, doing tests on the cheap to prove if anyone cares about your idea. This is also consistent for the business founders that lacks a technical co-founder to build a mobile app or web app. You’re going to start with traffic and interest.

Here’s the answer to the question in step-by-step format with links to outside resources if you need some guidance along the way.  

I’ve broken this series into five parts:

  1. Website Setup
  2. Keyword Brainstorming
  3. First Data Driven Decision
  4. Optimizing and Going Forward
  5. Additional Resources

Each part will also have a Part B – Results and Lessons Learned to follow up on what worked and didn’t work.

Part 1 – Website Setup

  1. Start with your concept/hypothesis or Domain Name
    1. What idea is it that you want to test? For me, the test was if people that read my blog on a monthly basis for business models would be interested in purchasing a $99 – price testing to come later in the sequence – for a Startup Financial template based on their business model?
      1. Given the number of times I’ve given this talk to various groups and accelerators – I knew there was demand, I just didn’t know how much demand, I just didn’t know if anyone would pay for it!
      2. What/Who are the competitors for this hypothesis?
        1. Build a list of competitive sites
    2. Do you have a domain name that you want to use for the test? Does the domain name include any of the keywords that you want to test? You don’t need to buy an expensive or “perfect” domain name here. Test first, if you get a great name that you can spend $100’s or $1,000’s of later that’s ok. Go to Name.com to buy a domain, consider a .co as an option. Domains with .com has historically been a preference, but keywords are likely more valuable than the extension at this point for your test.
    3. Is it worth testing the hypothesis? Well, I had a deadline to meet and a Sunday afternoon with a Football game on in the background. So over the three hours that followed here’s what I did:
  1. Now launch the Website
    1. 14 day free trial of CloudWays  
      1. With this service you pay based on usage and you can test multiple domains vs. purchasing a single WordPress.com annual contract of $99 + domain mapping for $13. This is a mistake I made early in this process… technically a hosted WordPress.org site uses the same Dashboard and you can test multiple ideas for an inexpensive price point. Plus you can do nested and numbered lists like this without touching the HTML (total pet peeve). 
      2. 14 days is a good test for you to get the site up and optimized with content for Search Engine Optimization (SEO). SEO takes time to build so your brand new site won’t be driving traffic in day one, but you need to get it started, so get to work.
    2. Cloudways Server setup
      1. Name your server – use your last name for now.
      2. Start with the basic settings – single CPU and minimum storage
    3. Add an Application
      1. Choose between
        1. Startup with a Single Site WordPress install or –  
        2. If you have a product to sell – this is the one I used because I knew I had at least four versions of a Excel Spreadsheet that I could sell install the Application Commerce on WooCommerce
          1. If you’re going to sell a downloadable, virtual or physical goods, you can install a WooCommerce site at setup
          2. You’ll need to input your products, names, descriptions, prices and
      2. Cloudways will assign your default email and Password for the account – it’s easy to hover over and copy.
    4. Configure WordPress
Website setup for Venture Ready Models
Website setup for Venture Ready Models
      1. Customize your Site
        1. Theme – if you’re going to finish this project during a football game, go with the default theme. Right now it’s called Twenty Sixteen. There are a ton of free and paid Themes available. You can come back to this later.
        2. Site Identity – Use your domain name and keywords
        3. Images – come back to this later – you can spend hours looking for the perfect photo on iStockPhoto or Site Icon
    1. Configure WordPress site plugins. Plugins can be downloaded from inside the WP app – “Add New”  
      1. SumoMe – this will allow you to test popup and build your lists, there is a free version you can use for the test. It’s limited, but go build some traffic and buy the paid subscription – see additional info below
      2. You need to startup building an email list – so go to MailChimp and setup a free Account for now. If you are going to use email automation – e.g. forwarding a five part email to remind people how to use your product – you’ll need a paid account. More later on that topic.
      3. Jetpack – allows you to track traffic on the WordPress site
      4. Yoast SEO – shows you where you can improve your content to have it better indexed for Google. Configuring your site for SEO is a topic that will go past the Football game timelines – see more below.
    1. Add Content to your site in two types Pages and Posts – you can visit my site here to see the final version. Pages use navigation, Posts are generally Blog content.
      1. All of the Pages that I started with during the football game – other pages were added later after looking at competitive sites
        1. Home – some of this content was pulled from DKParker.com/Blog to make the pace of copying and pasting faster – writing content will take time if you haven’t already started
        2. Business Models – base level content for the site. Greater than 300 words per page
        3. Shop
          1. Added the first Subscription Model spreadsheet
      2. Posts – I simply pointed this site to my other blog above vs. copying and pasting content. During the football game, no additional content was created
      3. Redirect your domain name/URL to the site – this was a little tricky because the description wasn’t great and I only do DNS/CName type of work once every year or so…
        1. It was easy to add a CNAME change to my Name.com account – the DNS servers needed to stay in the default setting.
      4. If you have trouble at any point in the setup you can use the Live Chat that is provided in the top right
    2. Submit your URL to Google URL Submit
    3. Download and install the WordPress Mobile App for your smartphone to monitor your site(s)  
    4. You should be at Half Time and ready for an adult beverage! If you spent too much time on theme or photos you’re likely into the fourth quarter!

Go right your first blog post and tell people why you think this is a great idea! Share it on social media, you can go get the social media profiles for your new product later